Himal Press 
KATHMANDU: The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DoHM) has forecast below-average rainfall and higher temperatures across most parts of the country during this year’s monsoon.
In its Monsoon Climate Outlook released on Friday, the DoHM projected that most parts of the country are likely to receive less rainfall than normal during the four months from June 1 to September 30.
According to the outlook, the southern parts of Karnali Province, most areas of Lumbini Province, the eastern parts of Madhesh Province, and southern areas of Koshi Province have a 55-65% probability of receiving below-average rainfall.
Similarly, most areas of Sudurpaschim Province, the western parts of Madhesh Province, and the central areas of Koshi Province have a 45-55% chance of experiencing below-average rainfall. The remaining parts of the country also have a 35-45% likelihood of receiving below-average rainfall, according to the DoHM.
The DoHM has also warned of rising temperatures during the monsoon season. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain above average across the country.
Some areas in the Sudurpaschim, Karnali, Lumbini, and Gandaki provinces have a 55-65% probability of recording higher-than-average maximum temperatures.
According to the DoHM, the climate outlook was prepared based on global climate models from the World Meteorological Organization’s climate centers, findings of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, and analysis of evolving climate patterns such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole. El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, while the Indian Ocean Dipole refers to a climate phenomenon defined by the difference in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
“The Pacific Ocean is currently moving towards El Niño conditions, which are associated with reduced rainfall in Nepal,” the DoHM said in the outlook.
Last year’s monsoon season also recorded below-average rainfall in most parts of the country.
