Himal Press 
KATHMANDU: The November 20 election won’t be easy for top leaders of Madhesh-based political parties. Even though the election is less than a week away, most of them aren’t confident about winning.
This is mainly because of their deviation from the agendas of the Madhesh movement, party splits, and the electoral alliances formed by major political parties.
The two main parties of Madhesh – Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) and Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP) – have been affected by splits, while CK Raut-led Janamat Party is trying to emerge as a new force in Madhesh. Janamat Party has filed candidacies in almost all constituencies of Madhesh Province.
JSP and LSP, who were centered in Madhesh in the past, are now tilting toward Nepali Congress and CPN-UML. Upendra Yadav-led JSP has formed an electoral alliance with UML, while Mahantha Thakur-led LSP is a part of the electoral alliance of the ruling coalition. Because of this, voters aren’t much positive toward these parties.
“JSP and LSP are no longer Madhesh-centric parties. In one way, they have already merged with NC and UML,” Chandra Singh, the spokesperson for the Janamat Party, told HimalPress. Singh went on to say that only Janamat Party can work for the people of Madhesh now.
Leaders of Madhesh-based parties, who ensured a respectable presence in the parliament by winning the 2017 elections in different constituencies of Madhesh, are now finding it difficult to win the election.
Rastriya Janata Party (now LSP) and Federal Socialist Forum (now JSP) formed an alliance in the 2017 election. Candidates of these parties were victorious in 20 out of 32 seats of the House of Representatives. Likewise, they won the majority of seats in Madhesh Province Assembly.
But the scenario has changed over the past five years. Parties have split to form new parties, while old alliances have made way for new ones.
JSP Chairman Upendra Yadav is in a very difficult situation. Dr CK Raut of Janamat Party is challenging Yadav in Saptari-2.
“Dr Raut is certain of winning the election. The situation is favorable for us,” Singh said. He is confident that people will show confidence in Janamat Party as Upendra Yadav’s ‘politics of lying’ won’t work any longer.
JSP’s Upendra Yadav is in a difficult situation as he had to leave the ruling coalition and form an alliance with UML at the eleventh hour.
Yadav, on the other hand, is confident of his victory. He said his party will win a total of 45 seats. “I will win easily. The public is saying that they need Upendra Yadav in the parliament once again. This is their love and goodwill toward me,” he said, adding: “As my victory is certain, I am campaigning for our other candidates.”
But Yadav is in a difficult situation as he had to leave the ruling coalition and form an alliance with UML at the eleventh hour. UML is supporting JSP in 17 seats of the House of Representatives and 42 seats of province assemblies.
Right after JSP exited the ruling coalition, LSP came on board the ruling coalition. LSP Chairman Mahantha Thakur, who supported UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli when the latter dissolved parliament, has now joined hands with Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba. The ruling coalition is supporting LSP’s candidates in seven seats of the House of Representatives and 14 seats of province assemblies.
Thakur, 80, is contesting the election from the Mahottari-3 seat of the House of Representatives. He has been telling voters that it will be his last election. He was elected from the same constituency in 2017.
But the election won’t be an easy piece of cake for Thakur as his old aide Brikhesh Chandra Lal is contesting against him. Lal had campaigned for Thakur in 2017.
Brikhesh has formed Tarai Madhesh Loktantrik Party (TMLP) after quitting LSP. Lal said he had to form TMLP after leaders of Madhesh-centric parties started leaving agendas of Madhesh. JSP’s Hari Narayan Yadav is also in the fray in Mahottari-2. Interestingly, Yadav too had supported Thakur in 2017. Similarly, former Chief Attorney of Madhesh Province, Dipendra Thakur, who had campaigned for Mahantha Thakur in 2017, is contesting the province assembly election as the candidate of JSP.
Local body election results
The ruling coalition is ahead in Mahottari-3 if the results of the local body election held in March are anything to go by. The ruling coalition is ahead of the alliance of the opposition parties by 3,499 votes.
Nepali Congress had withdrawn its candidacy to support Mahantha Thakur in 2017. This time also, he is banking on NC’s votes to win the election.
The local body election results suggest JSP Chairman Upendra Yadav is in a difficult situation. Things aren’t looking good for Yadav who defeated the candidate of the left parties by over 10,000 votes in 2017. It won’t be easy for him to see off the challenges of Janamat Party’s Raut and LSP’s Thakur.
LSP’s Senior Leader Rajendra Mahato, who had defeated NC’s heavyweight Bimalendra Nidhi in Dhanusha-3 in the 2017 election, is contesting from Sarlahi-2. But the contest won’t be easy for him as he won’t get the support of the ruling coalition even though his party has formed an electoral alliance with the coalition. Nepal Samajbadi Party Chairman Mahindra Raya Yadav is the ruling coalition’s official candidate in Sarlhai-2.
Yadav had defeated Mahato in Sarlahi-2 in the 2013 election.
Looking at the votes received by candidates in the local body election held in March, the ruling coalition has 32,578 votes in the constituency.
