Himal Press 
KATHMANDU: Bagmati Province, which houses the federal capital Kathmandu, is projected to account for more than one-third of Nepal’s total gross domestic product (GDP) in the current fiscal year 2025/26.
According to preliminary estimates of Provincial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released on Tuesday by the National Statistics Office (NSO), the country’s total GDP at consumer prices is estimated to reach Rs 6,600 billion, with Bagmati Province alone contributing Rs 2,423 billion, or 36.7%.
The contribution of other provinces is singificantly lower: Koshi Province with 15.8% (Rs 1,043 billion), Lumbini Province with 14.2% (Rs 937 billion), Madhesh Province with 13.1%(Rs 863 billion), Gandaki Province with 9% (Rs 593 billion), Sudurpashchim Province with 7% (Rs 464 billion), and Karnali Province with 4.2%(Rs 277 billion).
In terms of economic growth, Bagmati Province is also projected to record the highest annual growth rate at 5.40%, followed by Gandaki (5.01%). The estimated growth rates of these two provinces are higher than the estimated national GDP growth rate of 3.85%. Madhesh Province is expected to record the lowest growth rate of 1.31%. Only Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, and Sudurpashchim are estimated to record growth rates higher than the previous fiscal year, according to the NSO.
Agriculture is the dominant activity in all provinces except Bagmati, where wholesale and retail trade lead. Trade holds the second-largest share in Koshi and Madhesh provinces. In Bagmati, real estate services rank second, while public administration and defence occupy the second position in Gandaki and Karnali. Education ranks second in Lumbini and Sudurpashchim.
Growth trends show nearly all sectors expanding across provinces, except agriculture in Madhesh and public administration and defence in Lumbini and Sudurpashchim, which are expected to contract. Electricity and gas supply is projected to record the highest national growth rate at 20.93%.
Per capita GDP is the highest in Bagmati Province at $2,644, followed by Gandaki at $1,651 and Koshi at $1,410. Madhesh has the lowest per capita GDP of $934. The national per capita GDP is estimated at $1,513. Only the per capita GDP of Bagmati and Gandaki is estimated to remain above the national average.
