KATHMANDU: After a humiliating defeat in the 2022 general elections in Saptari-2, Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) Nepal Chairperson Upendra Yadav is contesting the 2026 elections from Saptari-3. However, Yadav is not confident about his election prospects despite switching constituencies.
In 2022, newcomer Janamat Party Chairperson CK Raut defeated Yadav in Saptari-2 by more than double the votes. Raut secured 35,042 votes, while Yadav could muster only 16,979.
Yadav eventually entered the House of Representatives via a by-election in Bara-2 after incumbent Ramsahay Prasad Yadav resigned to become Vice President.
Yadav, who faced defeat against Raut in 2022, lacked the courage to face him again in Saptari-2. Instead, he opted for the seemingly “safer” Saptari-3 seat. However, analysts say complex caste dynamics and a crowded field of local heavyweights threaten his prospects in the new constituency.
Yadav faces two formidable local opponents—former Nepali Congress (NC) district president Dinesh Kumar Yadav and CPN-UML’s Tarakant Chaudhary—in the election scheduled for March 5. Dinesh Kumar is a member of the dissolved House, while Tarakant is making his third consecutive run from the constituency. Adding to the contest, Tarakant’s nephew Amarkant Chaudhary is running from Saptari-3 on a Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) ticket.
While there are chances of Chaudhary’s votes splitting between Tarakant and Amarkant, local UML leaders insist party loyalty will prevent a family-based split. Many observers, however, say the RSP—riding a wave of national momentum—could disrupt traditional vote calculations.
The Yadav community is the largest voting bloc in Saptari-3. With both Upendra and Dinesh belonging to the same community, a split in Yadav votes is likely. NC leaders, however, argue that their organisational structure is stronger than that of JSP Nepal.
“If we protect our committed party votes, the result will favour us,” said an NC general convention representative. “While areas south of the East–West Highway may see vote-splitting, the northern belt remains our stronghold.”
The Tharu community, concentrated north of the East–West Highway, forms the second-largest voting bloc in the constituency. This further disadvantages Upendra, who is viewed as an outsider. While Dinesh, Tarakant, and Amarkant are residents of Saptari-3, Upendra’s permanent address is in Morang.
“Dinesh and Tarakant are local residents. They are certain to receive significant votes from their home municipalities,” said Mahesh Chaudhary, a resident of Saptari-3. “Since Upendra does not have a base here, it will be difficult for him.”
He added that even if Upendra manages to attract some Yadav votes, they would not be sufficient for a win. “He was comparatively stronger in Saptari-2. I don’t know why he chose to contest from this NC stronghold,” Chaudhary said.
Chaudhary also sees youth votes shifting toward Amarkant. “Although some votes will split between Amarkant and his uncle Tarakant, it will not benefit Upendra,” he said. “Upendra appears to be at risk even if he manages to get some of the split Tharu and Yadav votes.”
In the 2022 election, Dinesh won the seat with 26,166 votes. UML’s Tarakant came second with 22,300 votes, while Janamat Party’s Anis Ansari secured 15,114 votes. Although the NC had formed an alliance with the CPN (Maoist Centre), the latter had little influence in Saptari-3 as it secured only 1,736 proportional representation (PR) votes.
Tarakant had an electoral understanding with JSP Nepal in that election.
Janamat Party, which had generated significant buzz in Madhesh ahead of the polls, received the highest number of PR votes—18,340—in Saptari-3 in 2022. The NC followed closely with 18,249 PR votes, while JSP Nepal and UML received 10,153 and 9,594 votes, respectively.
The RSP secured just 298 PR votes.
