Why Gagan Thapa is betting on Sarlahi-4

KATHMANDU: Gagan Kumar Thapa, the new President of the Nepali Congress (NC), had the option to contest the upcoming House of Representatives election from his traditional constituency, Kathmandu–4. As party president, he could have chosen the seat where he has enjoyed three straight electoral victories since 2013.

Thapa, however, has decided to contest the elections scheduled for March 5 from Sarlahi–4. It is a completely new constituency for him, very different from Kathmandu in setting, language, and culture.

In Sarlahi–4, Thapa will face Amresh Kumar Singh, who won both elections since the constituency was created. Singh, a former NC leader, recently joined the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP).

Thapa’s decision to leave Kathmandu–4 has surprised many. Even in 2022, there were talks of Thapa contesting elections from Sarlahi-4. Local units of the party had even recommended his name to the central level.

However, Singh’s name was not recommended. This forced Singh to contest the election as an independent candidate. In the election, he defeated the NC candidate, Nagendra Kumar, by nearly 3,000 votes.

Why would Thapa choose to take on Singh, who won the last election as an independent candidate? NC General Secretary Pradip Paudel says the party wants to begin national development by positioning its President in Madhesh. “Madhesh is the foundation of the country,” Paudel told reporters at the party’s Sanepa office on Friday. “We want to build Nepal starting from Madhesh.”

Paudel said the party nominated its president from Sarlahi–4 to represent the sentiments of all Nepalis. He argued the move would help national unity.

Despite these claims, Thapa will have to face a new environment, language, and culture just before the election. That itself is a challenge.

Local NC leaders, however, are confident of Thapa’s win. Birendra Kumar Singh, vice-president of the Madhesh Province Committee of the NC and a provincial lawmaker from Sarlahi–4, claimed Thapa would win by a large margin. He said it makes no difference that Thapa is from Kathmandu.

Sarlahi–4 is considered an NC stronghold. Although the seat was created after the country adopted a federal setup, NC candidates have repeatedly won from that area. Mahanta Thakur won three elections from here while he was still in Congress.

Singh was elected from the area in 2013.

In the 2022 elections, NC votes were split after the party formed an electoral alliance with the CPN (Maoist Center). Singh benefited from this. Maoist candidate Madhumala Kumari Yadav also filed a rebel candidacy, which further weakened the NC vote. Even so, the official NC candidate finished second.

This time, the situation is different as the NC is contesting alone. Local NC leaders say the absence of an alliance will prevent vote splitting. NC leaders and cadres are energized because the party president himself is contesting from their constituency.

Still, the contest will not be easy. Singh, now an RSP candidate, has won this seat three times in a row. RSP’s Senior Leader Balen Shah appears to enjoy strong popularity in Madhesh. Local voters believe Singh could benefit from this “Balen effect”. The growing support for Shah may translate into votes for the RSP candidate.

RSP had fared poorly in Sarlahi–4 in the 2022 election. Its candidate, Dhiraj Thakur, received only 306 votes.

Thapa registered his candidacy through a proxy and has yet to visit Sarlahi–4. NC Madhesh Province Committee Vice President Singh says Thapa is scheduled to reach Sarlahi on January 26. He added that election campaigning was already underway.

Thapa is popular among both young voters and seniors. Since the party has projected him as a future prime minister, there is visible public support to send him to Parliament from Sarlahi–4.