NSO projects GDP to reach Rs 6,600 billion in 2025/26

KATHMANDU: Nepal Statistics Office has projected the economy to reach Rs 6,600 billion in the fiscal year 2025/26.

According to the preliminary estimates released on Tuesday, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), measured at current prices, is expected to rise to Rs 6,600 billion from a revised Rs 6,199 billion in 2024/25 and Rs 5,760 billion in 2023/24.

Economic growth is projected at 3.68% at basic prices and 3.85 percent at purchasers’ prices in 2025/26. This compares with a revised growth of 3.80% (basic prices) and 4.43% (purchasers’ prices) in 2024/25, and 3.38% and 3.68% respectively in 2023/24—indicating a slight slowdown in momentum.

Sector-wise, the economy continues to be dominated by services, which are expected to contribute 61.8% to GDP in 2025/26. The primary sector is projected to account for 24.5%, while the secondary sector will contribute 13.7%. The structure remains largely unchanged from previous years.

Among sectors, electricity and gas are expected to record the highest growth at 20.93%, followed by financial and insurance activities at 9.16%. In contrast, public administration and defence (0.23%) and education (1.50%) are projected to grow the slowest.

In terms of contribution, agriculture, forestry and fisheries are expected to remain the largest contributors to GDP at 24.03%, followed by wholesale and retail trade at 14.09%. Sectors such as water supply and waste management (0.40%) and mining and quarrying (0.43%) will continue to have minimal shares.

Total output at basic prices is projected to reach Rs 9,922.90 billion in 2025/26, up from a revised Rs 9,384.50 billion in 2024/25 and Rs 8,781.02 billion in 2080/81.
Remittance inflows are expected to play an even larger role in the economy, accounting for 33.02% of GDP in 2025/26, up from 27.80% in the previous fiscal year and 25.09% in 2023/24.

Per capita GDP, however, is projected to slightly decline to $1,513 in 2025/26 from a revised $1,516 in 2024/25. The NSO has attributed the decline to the depreciation of the Nepali rupee against the US dollar.

Meanwhile, per capita gross national income (GNI) is expected to remain unchanged at $1,535 in 2025/26, the same as the revised estimate for 2024/25, but higher than $1,480 recorded in 2023/24.