KATHMANDU: Madhav Kumar Nepal, chairperson of the CPN (Unified Socialist), appears to be the most worried after KP Sharma Oli was appointed Prime Minister.
Nepal, who is in the opposition for the first time since severing ties with the UML, is weak in the parliamentary power equation. His statement that the coalition of the Nepali Congress (NC) and UML has started conspiring against his party by taking advantage of this weakness has fueled speculation about a possible party split.
Addressing the party’s central committee meeting on July 25, Nepal claimed that various schemes were being plotted against the party. “There are conspiracies against us. We must face them strongly,” Nepal said. “I am not sure whether what I am hearing is true or not.”
Unified Socialist leaders say it is unclear what Nepal is referring to, but many speculate it is about a potential party split. Nepal’s remarks are being interpreted in two ways in political circles: either the Unified Socialist is splitting, or larger parties are trying to eliminate smaller parties by raising the threshold to become a national party.
While forming the new alliance, NC and UML said the constitutional amendment would be one of their priorities. A few days ago, UML General Secretary Shankar Pokhrel said the threshold to become a national party could be raised to 10%. At present, the threshold is 3%.
Leaders close to Nepal say the Unified Socialist chairperson is suspicious of Prime Minister Oli. Dissatisfaction was evident among leaders at the party’s 10th General Convention held recently. Some leaders attended the event out of obligation, and others boycotted it entirely.
Former minister Prem Ale did not attend the convention as he was in India. Even after returning, he showed no interest in the convention. He has been telling leaders close to him that he won’t remain in the party. According to leaders, he is not in contact with the party.
Likewise, lawmaker Krishna Kumar Shrestha (Kisan) is also dissatisfied with the party leadership. He was eyeing the position of secretary in the party and a berth in Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s cabinet. But he did not get Chairperson Nepal’s nod.
Besides these two leaders, Ambar Bahadur Thapa and Sher Bahadur Kunwar are also reportedly dissatisfied with Chairperson Nepal.
“I cannot tell who will leave the party, but many leaders and lawmakers are currently dissatisfied with the leadership,” a leader told Himal Press. “It seems that UML might be supporting this.”
According to that leader, dissatisfied Unified Socialist lawmakers are in contact with UML leaders. “If an ordinance is brought, we might go for a split,” the leader said.
Fear of Ordinance
Disgruntled Unified Socialist leaders are currently weighing their options, with some reportedly in contact with UML Chairperson Oli to facilitate a party split.
Oli might bring an ordinance to split the party, as he is working to make UML the largest party. Oli believes he can form a government until the election if UML has one lawmaker more than NC.
Oli and NC President Deuba have agreed to lead the government by turns. According to the agreement between the two leaders, Oli will step down after 20 months, after which Deuba will assume government leadership until the election. NC has 88 seats in the House of Representatives, while UML has 79.
“Everyone wants to make their party bigger. Can’t say if it will happen or not,” UML leader Bhanu Bhakta Dhakal said.
Oli is also reportedly in intense discussions with Ashok Rai-led Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) for unification. If Oli manages to unify with JSP and bring disgruntled Unified Socialist lawmakers to his party, UML could become the largest party in the lower house.
“UML is in the government. It can bring an ordinance anytime. If an ordinance is brought, it will affect our party,” a Unified Socialist leader said.
A similar ordinance had facilitated the Unified Socialist’s split from UML in 2021.
However, Unified Socialist leader Som Prasad Pandey says the talk of party division is baseless. “Even if an ordinance facilitating party split is brought, I don’t think our party will split,” he said. Pandey added that the party leadership is in discussion with all lawmakers of the party.
According to leaders, efforts were made to split the Unified Socialist by the Maoist-UML coalition government. However, it was the Upendra Yadav-led Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal that underwent a split, while opposition parties were trying to make a front against the Maoist-UML alliance.
“Had JSP Nepal not split first, our party would have surely split to save the ruling coalition,” a Unified Socialist leader said.
