Himal Press 
KATHMANDU: Nepal’s population is projected to reach 33.5 million by 2051, up from 29.4 million in 2021, as the country’s population growth rate continues to slow amid declining fertility, according to the National Statistics Office (NSO).
According to Nepal in Figures 2026, published by the NSO earlier this month, the projected population of 33.5 million in 2051 represents an increase of about 4.1 million, or nearly 14%, from the 2021 population of 29.4 million.
However, the pace of population growth has been declining steadily. The country’s population growth rate stood at 2.27% in the 1952/54 census when the country’s population was counted at 8.25 million. It declined to 2.05% in 1971, 2.62% in 1981, 2.08% in 1991 and 2.25% in 2001. The growth rate fell to 1.35% in 2011 and further to 0.92% in 2021.
The census data show that Nepal’s population increased from 8.25 million in 1952/54 to 29.4 million in 2021. The 2021 census recorded 6.7 million households and an inter-census population increase of 2.7 million.
The NSO’s projections indicate that population growth will remain modest over the coming decades. The projected total population rises from 29.2 million in 2021 to 30 million in 2026, 30.6 million in 2031, 31.3 million in 2036, 32.1 million in 2041, 32.8 million in 2046 and 33.5 million in 2051.
The projected slowdown is closely associated with declining fertility. According to the NSO, the total fertility rate is projected to fall from 1.93 children per woman in 2021 to 1.90 in 2026, 1.87 in 2031, 1.83 in 2036, 1.79 in 2041, 1.75 in 2046 and 1.71 in 2051.
The projected female population is expected to rise from 15 million in 2021 to 17.3 million by 2051.
Meanwhile, the number of people living outside their usual households is projected to rise from 1.82 million in 2021 to 2.57 million in 2051. It is projected to peak at 3.41 million in 2031 before declining gradually to 3.31 million in 2036, 3.31 million in 2041, 2.94 million in 2046 and 2.57 million in 2051.
