KATHMANDU: The counting of votes of the November 20 elections has reached the final stage. Though the final results have not come, the position of the parties post-election has already become clear.
Looking at the first past the post (FPTP) seats and proportional representation (PR) votes, Nepali Congress will become the largest political party with a slim margin. Despite this, UML seems to be in a rush to form the government.
Both parties have begun meeting leaders of other parties as part of their preparations to form the government. Even before the final results were out, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli telephoned CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and proposed the latter to be a partner in government formation. This is the first time that the two leaders held talks since the split of Nepal Communist Party more than a year ago.
On Sunday, Oli met with NC leader Prakash Man Singh. Likewise, CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman and NC Senior leader Ram Chandra Poudel held talks on Monday morning.
Though talks are ongoing on different fronts, the government is preparing to give continuity to the five-party coalition. But things don’t look easier for NC President and Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba.
The first challenge for Deuba is the intra-party dynamics in NC. Deuba, who is eyeing his sixth prime ministerial stint, will have to face a stiff challenge for the election of parliamentary party leader.
The first challenge for Deuba is the intra-party dynamics in NC. Deuba, who is eyeing his sixth prime ministerial stint, will have to face a stiff challenge for the election of parliamentary party leader. Even if he manages to win the election, he will have to persuade leaders of coalition partners to get their support. If even a single party of the coalition is not satisfied, it could derail Deuba’s pursuit of the premiership.
It may be worth mentioning that Maoist Center has arrived at the conclusion that NC votes didn’t transfer to the common candidates of the ruling coalition. This suggests, the Maoist Center can join hands with UML at any time. There are plenty of instances of Dahal making U-turns in the past.
It seems that the Maoist will become a key factor for government formation yet again. Minister for Home Affairs Bal Krishna Khand said a few days ago that Deuba and Dahal have agreed to give continuity to the ruling coalition. But Maoist Center can backtrack at any time if it gets a better offer.
The ruling coalition partners seem to have agreed to give continuity to the ruling coalition by bringing smaller parties on board. But Maoist hasn’t shut the doors on UML yet. Therefore, one cannot ascertain that the ruling coalition will get continuity in the next government.
138: The Magic Number
If the Unified Socialist failed to cross the threshold of the PR vote count, the ruling coalition might need another 6-7 lawmakers to secure the required majority to form the government. Along with NC, Maoist Center and Unified Socialist, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP) and Rastriya Jana Morcha (RJM) are the other members of the ruling coalition. NC is estimated to get 85-87 seats including PR seats, while Maoist Center could get around 30 seats. Unified Socialist will be limited to 10 seats should it fail to cross the threshold of PR votes. LSP and RJM have four and one seats, respectively, are won’t be able to cross the threshold of PR votes. This means the ruling coalition will have a maximum of 132 lawmakers – six less than the magic number of 138 required to form the government.
Since independent candidate Prabhu Sah won the election with the support of the ruling coalition, the ruling coalition can count on him to form the government. The other two independent candidates are Amresh Kumar Singh and Yogi Mandal, the rebel candidates of NC and UML, respectively. NC will try to attract them too. Despite all this, it won’t be possible to form the government under the leadership of NC if the Maoist Center opts out of the coalition.
Maoist Center has set only one condition – Dahal should lead the government for the first two years. Therefore, Maoist will join the coalition only if NC agrees to form the government under Dahal’s leadership.
Amid all the confusion over power-sharing, ambassadors of two neighboring countries have become active.
Dahal, however, has been saying that there is no immediate possibility of joining hands with the UML. But Maoist leaders do not believe this. They have been saying that the party couldn’t get the expected seats because of the Maoists.
Amid all the confusion over power-sharing, ambassadors of two neighboring countries have become active. The Indians seem more concerned than the Chinese over the next coalition and the government. India, which believes China and US are playing in Nepal, is preparing to send a ‘mission’ to Nepal accordingly.
Indian envoy becoming active
Speculations are doing rounds that the new government could be formed under the leadership of UML Chairman Oli. Oli has the backing of Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) who formed an electoral alliance with UML in different seats.
Oli plans to bring the Maoist Center on board this alliance to form the government. He also has plans to include CK Raut. The Janamat Party president is positive toward Oli as he joined mainstream politics on Oli’s initiation. The UML Chairman is said to be preparing an alliance by sharing the posts of President, Vice President, Speaker, Deputy Speaker, chief ministers of provinces among coalition partners.
The Indian Embassy is also active in all these developments. The embassy’s unit looking after political matters is holding meetings with different party leaders.
Oli’s advisor Bishnu Rimal met Indian Embassy officials at Lazimpat-based Shanker Hotel on Saturday. Before this, the Indian Embassy officials also met Maoist Deputy General Secretary Pampha Bhusal.
Indian ambassador to Nepal Navin Srivastava has also been meeting senior political leaders. Srivastava, who doesn’t interact with the media much, has already held meetings with Deuba and Dahal to enquire about new government formation. India seems to be concerned over the new coalition and the government.
Sources say India has told Nepali leaders that it won’t ‘play’ in government formation regardless of who leads it.
China focusing on left unity
As the talks of left unity gain pace, China also seems to be active in Nepal affairs. This is also confirmed by the visit of Chinese officials to Nepal just before the election, and the visit of the Maoist leaders to China after the election. However, it is not clear which Chinese leader met the Maoist leaders in China.
