JANAKPURDHAM: Dhanusha-3, which is home to Janakpurdham, the capital of Madhesh Province, is once again in the spotlight in the House of Representatives elections scheduled for March 5. However, as voters here often remain silent until the final moment before making their choice, it is difficult to predict who will be elected from this constituency.
Although more than three dozen candidates, including some independent ones, are in the electoral race, the main contest in Dhanusha-3 will be among the Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), and Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) Nepal.
NC has fielded Bimalendra Nidhi, while UML has named incumbent lawmaker Julie Kumari Mahato in the constituency. RSP’s Manish Jha and JSP Nepal’s Parmeshwar Sah are also in the race.
Once considered an NC stronghold, Dhanusha-3 has seen other parties dominate in the past two elections. In 2017, Rajendra Mahato of the then Rastriya Janata Party (RJP) defeated NC candidate Nidhi. In the 2022 elections, UML’s Mahato defeated Anil Jha of the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP) Nepal, who had the backing of NC under a coalition arrangement.
Now, after two consecutive elections without representation from this constituency, NC is attempting to reclaim its legacy. Nidhi has entered the race emphasizing development and civic rights. UML’s Mahato is seeking to retain her seat, while RSP’s Manish Jha hopes to capitalize on the party’s growing national momentum. JSP Nepal Shah, who suffered defeat in the provincial elections in 2022, is aiming for his first parliamentary victory.
An unexpected factor in this election is the RSP’s attempt to benefit from the popularity of Kathmandu’s former mayor, Balen Shah. While the so-called “Balen effect” has energized RSP supporters, analysts believe it may not be sufficient to secure victory in a first-past-the-post contest.
Political analyst Roshan Janakpuri says voters are prioritizing development over slogans. According to him, voters are evaluating candidates based on their past performance and their capacity to deliver development in the future. He believes the main competition will be between NC and UML. “RSP may influence proportional representation votes. However, it is unlikely to affect the first-past-the-post outcome significantly,” he added.
The local business community, which is believed to be decisive in the polls, says UML is not strongly positioned this time. They say UML’s Mahato failed to deliver substantial development after her electoral victory in 2022. “I don’t see UML in the race. The main competition will be between NC and RSP,” a local businessman told Himal Press.
Caste dynamics have historically played a role in Dhanusha-3, particularly among business communities such as Teli, Sudi, and Kalwar groups. However, many local voters say caste considerations may have less influence this time, given what they describe as special circumstances surrounding the election.
In the 2017 election, Rajendra Mahato secured 30,750 votes, while NC received 27,847 votes. In 2022, although NC did not field a FPTP candidate, it secured 25,195 proportional votes in Dhanusha-3, compared to UML’s 17,874.
The constituency includes a total of 38 wards–17 of the 25 wards of Janakpurdham Sub-Metropolitan City, along with Dhanauji Rural Municipality, Nagarain Municipality, Mukhiya Patti Musaharniya Rural Municipality, and Ward No. 9 of Bideha Municipality. It has 125,927 registered voters: 63,766 in Janakpurdham’s 17 wards, 14,742 in Dhanauji, 27,274 in Nagarain, 17,199 in Mukhiya Patti Musaharniya, and 2,946 in Bideha Ward No. 9.
In the 2022 local elections, NC won Janakpurdham Sub-Metropolitan City, Dhanauji Rural Municipality, and Nagarain Municipality, while JSP-N leads Mukhiya Patti Musaharniya Rural Municipality.
