KATHMANDU: Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has not been able to show the same level of aggressiveness in running the government as he did in 2017. At that time, Oli had formed a coalition with two left-wing parties, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center), and after winning the election, he took leadership of the government. Later, the two parties merged to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP). Enjoying a near two-thirds majority, he had no obstacles in running the government. Whether small or large decisions, Oli would make them on his own.
UML Chairperson Oli is still leading a government with almost a two-thirds majority. The difference is that he does not have any left-wing party supporting him now. He has the Nepali Congress (NC), which calls itself democratic, as the coalition partner.
Maoist Center Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal repeatedly changed coalition partners, compelling the two largest parliamentary parties to form a government together, according to NC and UML leaders. Although it was said that the NC-UML coalition was formed to amend the constitution, neither the government nor both parties have started work in that direction so far.
There is an agreement between the two parties to lead the government by turns. According to this agreement, Prime Minister Oli will step down after about a year to pave the way for NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba to become the country’s executive head.
Despite having an almost two-thirds majority, Oli has neither been able to run the government according to his wishes nor make decisions. Several political events after taking government leadership have confirmed this.
The Deputy Speaker Episode
After assuming the office of the Prime Minister, Oli set his sights on the position of Deputy Speaker. He was preparing to remove Deputy Speaker Indira Rana, accusing her of ‘misusing her position’ to ensure a majority in the Constitutional Council. Nepali Congress (NC) President Sher Bahadur Deuba Oli’s proposal. Both parties were preparing to pressure the Deputy Speaker to resign or bring a motion to remove her.
After realizing that the Deputy Speaker wouldn’t step down, both parties started collecting signatures of their lawmakers to bring a motion to remove her. However, anticipating a potential ‘backfire’ due to an insufficient two-thirds majority, Oli backed away from the plan to remove Rana.
NC Lawmakers close to Dr Shankar Koirala and Gagan Kumar Thapa were against the proposal to remove Deputy Speaker Rana. The two leaders said the removal of the deputy speaker could set a wrong precedent. After Deuba chose to withdraw due to pressure within the party, Oli was left with no option but to abort the plan to remove Deputy Speaker.
Plan to remove Kulman Singh
After Rana, Oli’s next target was Nepal Electricity Authority’s Executive Chief Kulman Ghising.
Oli wanted to remove Ghising due to disputes over the outstanding fee of electricity supplied to some industries through trunk lines and dedicated feeders. The government ordered NEA to restore power supply to the industries, but Ghising defied the instructions. The Oli-Ghising confrontation was publicly evident for several days.
Oli sought support from his coalition partner NC to remove Ghising. However, he did not get the support. Ultimately, Oli’s plan to remove Ghising became ineffective.
Cooperative Fraud Investigation
Another notable episode during this period was the cooperative investigation. When NC was in the opposition, there UML as in a coalition government led by the Maoist Center. While NC was demanding the formation of a parliamentary committee to investigate the misappropriation of cooperative deposits, the ruling parties opposed it outright. Nevertheless, the investigation committee was formed. The committee recommended an investigation against Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) President Rabi Lamichhane.
Although former DIG Chhabilal, who was also implicated in the case, had already been arrested, Lamichhane was active in party activities. Some NC leaders pressurized their president Deuba to arrest Lamichhane for investigation. Deuba then put pressure on Oli to arrest Lamichhane. The RSP President was eventually arrested and is in the custody of Kaski police.
Although Oli was in favor of launching an investigation into the cooperative fraud case, arresting Lamichhane was not in his plan. But he yielded under NC’s pressure.
Political Parties-related Ordinance
Taking advantage of the end of the parliamentary session and before the winter session could begin, Prime Minister Oli wanted to bring a political party-related ordinance. This issue has received considerable discussion in Nepali political circles for some time.
Oli wanted to introduce the ordinance to facilitate the split of some parties. His target was the Madhav Kumar-led CPN (Unified Socialist). Other small political parties could also split.
Janamat Party Chairperson CK Raut claimed that efforts to divide his party were ongoing. He alleged that leaders of his party were being offered temptations of position and money.
However, NC was not in favor of bringing the ordinance. Top NC leaders, including President Deuba, met Oli and indicated that there was no necessity to bring such an ordinance. After pressure from NC leaders, Oli ultimately backed down. Later, Oli said that unnecessary rumors were being spread about the ordinance even before though the government had not made any such preparation.
BRI Agreement
Another issue in discussion in the Nepali political circle is the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative). Prime Minister Oli is heading to China on December 2. This is his first official foreign visit since becoming Prime Minister. Although he had wanted to start his foreign visit from India, as has been the tradition, he chose China as no invitation came from India.
Oli is in a difficult situation as he faces pressure within the party to advance the BRI agreement, NC has clearly stated that no agreement adding debt burden to the state should be signed. NC has been maintaining that agreements involving loans are unacceptable as the country cannot bear the burden. The party has said that the government should focus on soliciting grants.
Experts say Oli was not this ‘powerless’ in his previous terms as Prime Minister. Some commented that Oli no longer has the freedom to make decisions like in the past governments.
Political analyst Puranjan Acharya said the recent political events show that the NC has successfully controlled Prime Minister Oli. “NC is the largest party in the ruling coalition, and their philosophies are different,” Acharya told Himal Press. “Oli does not have the freedom to act as he did in the past. To a large extent, NC has been successful in controlling him.”
Recent events show that NC has become successful in maneuvering Oli according to its wishes, he said. Citing examples from the attempts to remove the Deputy Speaker to the recent BRI discussions, Acharya said: ‘NC appears to have directly interfered with Oli. Events have confirmed that NC has become successful in reining in the Prime Minister.”
Some have also commented that NC President Deuba dominates Prime Minister Oli. Their understanding is that Oli makes decisions only according to Deuba’s pressure and suggestions.
Acharya, however, is not keen to say Deuba has been a dominating force in the ruling coalition. “I won’t say that. This is because Deuba had consented to Oli’s plan to remove the Deputy Speaker. It did not materialize because of the pressure of the other faction of NC,” Acharya said. “The ordinance to facilitate party split also could not move ahead due to the other faction’s pressure.”
